Before the collapse of the USSR, there was a consensus among Soviet sociologists about the opinions of the masses. Over the last decade, the situation has changed significantly. Today, there is a broad range of views among Russian politicians and intellectuals about public attitudes. These images are determined to a great extent by two questions. First, in view of the success of democratic reforms in the Baltic states, who is to blame for Russia's failure to build a new democratic society--the masses, or the ruling elite? Second, considering the character of these actors, what are the prospects for Russian democracy and liberal capitalism in the future?

There are at least three very different models for describing the Russian masses. Each is based on at least some empirical data.

The first--the "eclectic model"--suggests that post-Soviet Russians have an extremely eclectic mind, bordering on schizophrenia. Its most eloquent advocate is Boris Grushin, a famous Russian sociologist. According to various polls, it is true that the Russians maintain opinions that seem, to some degree, contradictory. They reject the Western model of life, but do not want to lose their political and economic freedoms. They accept the idea of having a market economy, yet they favor regulations on prices and upper income levels. They see America as an enemy, but they "like" Americans. They look to the Communist past as a Golden Age, but do not advocate its return. No more than 25 percent of the population votes for the Communists. Almost all Russians despise Yeltsin, yet they support Putin, who was Yeltsin's chosen successor. Furthermore, while they approve of Putin's first year in power, they complain about the rise in prices and the persistent problems of crime and corruption.

The second model--the "uncivilized model"--was developed by Lev Gudkov, a sociologist from the All Russian Center of Public Opinion Studies (VTsIOM) polling firm. This model describes the Russians as uncivilized people who are unable to live under democracy and whose opinions have no value for those who are trying to build a normal society. The masses are said to be lazy drunkards and thieves, who refuse to work hard and honestly but constantly complain about their salaries. They are seen as passive individuals, weary of change, unaccustomed to lofty motives, and prone only to deviant and deeply individualistic actions. Their vision of themselves borders on fantasy. They believe, for instance, that sobornost (collectivism) plays a central role in the life of the people. They suppose, without grounds, that the Russian people are highly spiritual, hospitable, and ready to make sacrifices for others.

Most of the data used to support these two models cannot be disputed, but the interpretation of this information is problematic. A third model is needed to better describe Russian public opinion. Labeling it the "rational model," I suggest that in general the behavior of the masses has been rational in view of the given historical context.

There is no doubt that Russians live in troubled times. Their country is faced with a deeply corrupt and immoral ruling class, to an extent unprecedented in its history. All levels of the bureaucracy--from the Kremlin to the local police--regularly ignore the law. The economy is said to be a free market, when in fact it is dictated by monopolists and criminal structures. The political system allows the Kremlin to prearrange, or even fake, the results of elections. It also allows local authorities to wield arbitrary power. What is more, considering the historical memory of most Russians, they are not prepared to counteract these forces. They see major political protests, such as riots and revolutions, as acts that will only make matters worse.

Under these conditions, the hierarchy of values in the Russian mind looks quite rational. It is only normal for people to value, first and foremost, order in society (in the Hobbesian sense). It is no less rational to sacrifice democracy for this end, especially when the country faces chaos and disintegration (at the same time, most Russians want both order and freedom). According to a VTsIOM survey conducted in 2000, the vast majority of Russians--80 percent--were ready to make such a sacrifice. The yearning for order explains why the people support Putin, even though he is the heir of despised former President Yeltsin. Russians are more concerned about a smooth transition of power and the avoidance of crisis than the leadership's adherence to democratic procedures. This is also why Putin has become known as the "Teflon" president. Any weakening of his authority generates political instability and heightened fear in society, which prompt the reinforcement of his power.

Russians understand that life under the Communist regime was better for most of them, but they realize that a return to the old system is impossible and that any attempt to do so would make life much worse. What is more, they appreciate and are fearful of losing the freedoms that came when the old system collapsed. In the same way, the Russians bemoan the collapse of the Soviet empire, but believe that it belongs only to the past and are against any attempt to use force to control Ukraine and other republics.

Russian attitudes toward the present economic system are quite rational. The majority of the people subscribe to the social-democratic ideals that hold sway in Western Europe and, to some extent, in the United States. They want both economic freedoms and state intervention. They favor a moderate level of inequality as long as there are social guarantees for those who are less successful.

At the same time, Russians would deem it utopian to believe that their society can develop along the same lines as the West. For this reason, they hope it is still possible to maintain some political and economic freedoms, combined with strong authoritarian power. They see this combination as "the Russian road to the future."

Of course, Russians are exposed to the official propaganda. As developments during the Yugoslavian crisis in March-April 1999 showed, anti-Americanism increased dramatically under the influence of this propaganda. However, a few months later the Russians returned to their semi-friendly, semi-hostile attitudes toward America, which are almost mirror reflections of American attitudes toward Russia.

There is no question that the process of desocialization--the rejection of social norms--is taking place in the country. Alcoholism is a growing problem, particularly in the countryside, as are drug abuse and the decline of morals. However, these problems are strongly exaggerated by the ruling elite, who try to shift the blame for their failures onto the masses. Putin is regarded by the people as a strong and reasonable leader, which sharply distinguishes him from the former president. Barring an economic or technological disaster, he should feel confident that the masses will remain eager to preserve order in society, and having no alternative (he and his retinue are sure to quash all competitors), they will support his reelection in 2004--this being the primary goal of the Putin regime.

US National Intelligence Council